RAIL3 after 2Q26: grain volumes lift revenue while lower yields and higher debt costs flatten adjusted EBITDA

On 12 August 2026, Rumo S.A. (B3: RAIL3) published 2Q26 results for the period ended 30 June 2026. Transported volume reached 23.8 billion TKU (+9.1% year on year), net operating revenue R$ 3.94 billion (+6.2%), and adjusted EBITDA R$ 2.27 billion (−0.5%). Adjusted net income was R$ 688 million (−5.8%), while reported net income rose 56% to R$ 520 million — a reminder that impairment timing and non-recurring lines separate the two profit measures.

The quarter fits a pattern seen in other Brazilian infrastructure write-ups on this blog: operating leverage from volume is real, but average tariffs and mix can offset it, and financial expense matters when the debt base grows in a higher-rate environment. Management also framed a strategic shift toward cash preservation and efficiency after a multi-year expansion cycle that included the Ferrovia do Mato Grosso (FMT) first phase delivered in June 2026.

Consolidated snapshot

Figures below follow Rumo's 2Q26 earnings release (12 August 2026) unless noted:

In 1H26, volume grew 16.0% to 44.0 billion TKU, revenue +8.2% to R$ 7.22 billion, and adjusted EBITDA +2.5% to R$ 4.01 billion (margin 55.5%).

Volume, market share, and the yield trade-off

Grain drove the top line. Consolidated TKU growth was 9.1% in the quarter and 16.0% in 1H26, with the North operation at +8.0% / +16.1% and the South at +14.1% / +17.2%. Container volumes rose +14.1% in 2Q26.

Rumo cited market share metrics in the release:

Revenue grew faster than tariffs fell. On a unit basis (consolidated, R$ per '000 TKU, transport revenue only in the tariff line):

The release attributes lower average prices partly to Malha Central commercial repositioning in the North and sugar mix (lower sugar share, weaker sugar prices) in the South. North transport revenue still rose 4.4% on volume; South transport revenue +12.7% with yield −1.3%.

Variable costs rose 9% in the quarter — volume, third-party rolling-stock remuneration maturing from 2025 contracts, and activity-linked lines — while diesel spend was described as stable thanks to lower unit fuel cost offsetting higher consumption.

Segments — North carries EBITDA; South normalization matters

North adjusted EBITDA was flat year on year at R$ 1.97 billion. The comparison absorbs roughly R$ 30 million of equity pick-up in 2Q25 tied to the rescinded sale of Terminal T-XXXIX (held-for-sale period).

South adjusted EBITDA was R$ 245 million (−1%). Reported South EBITDA was heavily distorted by Malha Sul impairment: R$ 168 million in 2Q26 versus R$ 398 million in 2Q25 (non-cash; recoverability test). Adjusted figures add those impairments back — the educational point is the same as in other Brazilian releases: do not mix reported segment EBITDA with adjusted consolidated targets.

Containers delivered R$ 51 million EBITDA (+2%), with revenue +18.2% and yield +6% on higher-value flows, offset by +28% variable costs (long-haul mix, ANTT minimum road-freight floor).

Adjusted EBITDA bridge — the ~R$ 100 million 2Q25 ghost

Adjusted EBITDA was stable at R$ 2.27 billion, but the year-over-year headline hides one-off income in 2Q25:

1. R$ 70 million — business-interruption insurance (Rio Grande do Sul extreme weather).
2. ~R$ 30 million — equity pick-up on T-XXXIX during the held-for-sale window.

Rumo states that excluding ~R$ 100 million from the prior-year base, adjusted EBITDA growth would be about 4%. That is the line to use when reconciling volume +9% with flat adjusted profit at the consolidated level.

1H26 Malha Sul impairments totaled R$ 336 million (R$ 168 million per quarter in 1Q26 and 2Q26), down from R$ 683 million in 1H25 — another reason reported operating profit (+24.8% in 1H26) diverges from adjusted EBITDA (+2.5%).

Below EBITDA — financial result and tax

Net financial result was negative R$ 765 million versus negative R$ 698 million in 2Q25. The release highlights:

The +24.9% swing in comprehensive net debt cost is tied mainly to a higher average net debt balance. Other financial income rose on capitalized interest on projects in progress — notably FMT.

Adjusted net income fell 5.8% despite flat adjusted EBITDA because financial expense scaled with net debt (R$ 17.3 billion vs R$ 14.2 billion at 2Q25). Reported net income jumped on lower impairment and tax lines relative to 2Q25 — different adjustments, not a contradiction in operating performance.

Capex, FMT, and the cash-preservation message

Capex (cash basis) was R$ 1.60 billion in 2Q26 (+14.5%) and R$ 3.37 billion in 1H26. Split in the quarter:

Rumo front-loaded FMT spend in 1H26 as operations started in June 2026; management expects lower capex in 2H26 than in the first half. The letter to investors stressed cash preservation, selective growth, and extracting more from existing assets before broad portfolio expansion — relevant context when reading R$ 1.6 billion quarterly investment against flat adjusted EBITDA.

Balance sheet and leverage

At 30 June 2026:

Debt is mostly CDI-linked (directly or via derivatives), with ~102% of CDI average cost and ~5 years average duration, per the release. Rumo drew R$ 250 million from the second tranche of its 18th debenture issue (IPCA + 8.42%, 15 years, BNDES line) and reported R$ 2.4 billion of undrawn committed credit lines.

Contractual covenants cited include maximum leverage 3.5x (net comprehensive debt / LTM adjusted EBITDA) and minimum interest coverage 2.0x — Rumo ended 2Q26 at 2.1x leverage, stable vs 1Q26.

Crop backdrop (company estimates)

Rumo embedded Brazil grain outlook in the release (sources: company, Veeries):

26/27 figures are early-cycle and weather-sensitive (release mentions strong El Niño uncertainty).

Limits of this reading

• Adjusted EBITDA adds back Malha Sul impairments; reported EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are not interchangeable without reading the footnote table.
• TKU, tariff, and contribution margin unit tables use Rumo definitions (transport tariff excludes take-or-pay and some ancillary lines).
• Net debt is comprehensive (includes certain leases and derivatives per the release table); screens that use simple net debt may differ.
• Crop and market share statistics come from Rumo's release and third-party agriculture data — not from regulatory filings alone.
• This note does not model concession commitments or full IFRS 16 lease stacks; the ITR remains the authority for balance-sheet detail.

Where to view in the explorer

• RAIL3 — Rumo S.A.
• Blog
• Company list

Sources

• Rumo S.A. — Relatório de Resultados 2T26 (reference 30 Jun 2026), 12 Aug 2026
• Rumo S.A. — investor relations materials (CVM disclosure chain)
• RAIL3 on the explorer — CVM filings and company page

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Adjusted EBITDA, comprehensive net debt, and segment figures follow Rumo's release definitions; when in doubt, the official CVM ITR and earnings release prevail. Refer to those documents and, if needed, a licensed professional.