BBDC4 after 2Q26: a tenth profit step, an early 16.2% ROE, and a R$10bn follow-on still open

On the evening of 5 August 2026, Bradesco released its 2Q26 results. Recurring net income was R$ 7.05 billion — the tenth consecutive quarterly increase, a record versus the previous peak in 2022, and a touch above the Street. The next session, 6 August, BBDC4 still closed down about 1.9% at R$ 17.70. Two other clocks were already running: a capital increase of up to R$ 10 billion whose preference period opened that same week, and a 90-day NPL print that ticked up to 4.3% while coverage fell. Keep four layers apart: recurring profit and ROE, the credit-quality tape, CET1 with and without the follow-on, and 2026 guidance that management refused to raise.

What the earnings package actually shows

Figures below follow the company’s recurring view as reported in the release and contemporaneous coverage on 5–7 August 2026:

First-half recurring income was R$ 13.86 billion (+16.2% year on year). Reported first-half profit was only R$ 12.08 billion (+1.8%), because the first quarter carried a non-recurring tax charge near R$ 1.78 billion. In 2Q itself, reported and recurring both printed R$ 7.05 billion. If a table says the sequential jump was 40%, that is the reported line including last quarter’s tax item; the clean comparison is +3.5%.

The mix behind the tenth step is operating leverage, not a credit-cost miracle. Total revenue rose about 10.3% to R$ 37.6 billion while expenses rose 3.4%. Client NII was up 13.8%. Market NII more than doubled, to R$ 673 million — desks later flagged treasury as a helper. Ask how much of the margin surprise you would still have if the trading book had a quiet quarter. Insurance net income was R$ 2.94 billion (+28.3%), with ROAE of 22.8%.

The expanded loan book ended June at R$ 1.137 trillion (+4.3% QoQ; +11.6% YoY). Companies grew about 14.1%, individuals 8.4%, SMEs 16.1%. Secured products reached 61% of the book (+2.5 percentage points year on year). The branch count kept falling: 4,107 service points, 1,119 fewer than a year earlier.

CFO Cassiano Scarpelli told the call that 16.2% ROE was a level the bank had expected only in the fourth quarter. Delivering it in June is a timing fact, not a proof that the 2022 peak of 18.1% is back. The balance sheet is larger; the same ROE now sits on more equity.

Asset quality — three clocks that do not move together

The 90-day NPL ratio rose to 4.3% in June, from 4.2% in March and 4.1% a year earlier.

Coverage of NPLs fell to about 152%, from 161% in March and roughly 178% a year earlier. Stage 2 — loans with a significant rise in credit risk that are not yet defaulted — moved to 5.5% of the classified book, from 4.9%, with the stock up to R$ 46.0 billion from R$ 40.0 billion. Stage 3 stock was R$ 60.2 billion, or about 7.2% of the classified book (from 7.9% in June 2025). Cost of credit held at 3.5% of the expanded book; the mass-market line printed 5.9%. Coverage of Stage 3 formation in the first half was about 101%.

Those lines answer different questions. NPL is a lagging stock. Stage 2 is a watchlist. Coverage falls when problem loans grow faster than provisions. Stage 3 as a share of the book can ease year on year even while the 90-day ratio ticks up, because write-offs and the expanded-book denominator are not the same object.

Management’s explanation for the 90-day move is specific. Collateralised working-capital lines hit the SME NPL print (about 0.4 percentage points) before guarantees are realised. Government-backed FGO and FGI facilities carry honour periods of roughly 120–185 days, so arrears can enter the ratio before the guarantee pays; the bank says provisions do not move one-for-one with that ratio, and that the books should normalise through year-end. Banco John Deere, 50% owned, concentrates machinery maturities in the second quarter. XP’s post-print note is a fair reading method even if you ignore the recommendation: FGO/FGI and John Deere explain part of the tape; households and SMEs remain the residual risk.

The R$ 10 billion follow-on is still open

On 29 July, before the print, the board approved a capital increase of up to R$ 10 billion. Controlling shareholders committed to as much as R$ 8 billion. Issue prices were R$ 15.43 (ON) and R$ 17.64 (PN). Preference rights run from 6 August to 4 September 2026; the shares traded ex-rights from 5 August. BTG’s dilution math, for readers who do not subscribe: about 3.4% at the maximum. The same material fact brought forward interest on equity so that shareholders receive R$ 6.5 billion on 15 September — cash that can be used in the subscription itself. Separate from that calendar, the 2Q package allocated R$ 4 billion of JCP in the quarter.

CET1 ended June at 11.3%, up from 10.2% in March. Total Basel was 15.5%. On a pro forma basis, the follow-on plus remaining Bradsaúde regulatory effects would lift CET1 to about 13.6%. Citi put the raise at roughly 90 basis points of CET1 if it is fully taken up. Noronha’s public version is simpler: ROE had cleared the cost of capital, the controllers are putting money in, and the cash funds the transformation plan.

A 6 August close of R$ 17.70 sat almost on top of the PN issue price. That is a snapshot from results week, not a live quote. For the price during the rest of the preference window, use the company page.

Guidance left unchanged — 1H is not the year

The bank kept every 2026 range:

Leaving the loan-growth band untouched after a first half already above the top of the range is a communication choice. Management is not rewriting the slide just because June printed 11.6%. The same caution applies in reverse: 1H NII after provisions of R$ 21.3 billion sits near the middle of a R$ 42–48 billion year only if the second half cooperates. Fees are the line furthest from their own band.

How to use the explorer on this package

1. Open BBDC4 and look for the ITR with reference 30/06/2026 — the statutory interim filing behind the earnings deck.
2. Pull the 05/08/2026 results notice and the 29/07/2026 material fact on the capital increase.
3. Label every profit figure: recurring versus reported; quarter versus first half (the 1Q tax charge is the usual trap).
4. Read NPL, Stage 2 and coverage as three clocks. A stable cost-of-credit ratio can coexist with a lower coverage ratio.
5. Treat the R$ 10 billion as a subscription process with a calendar (preference until 4 September, JCP cash on 15 September), not as capital already sitting in CET1.
6. For a live quote during the rest of the follow-on window, use the company page — this article does not freeze a print-time price.

Limits of this reading

• A tenth consecutive profit increase and a down session can coexist; they answer different questions.
• FGO/FGI and John Deere can explain part of the 90-day move without clearing household and SME risk.
• Pro forma CET1 of 13.6% assumes the raise is taken up and counts Bradsaúde effects that are not all in the June ratio.
• Unchanged guidance after a first half above the loan-growth band is not the same as cutting the band; 2H origination still has to slow or the range will be missed the other way.
• One session’s price after the call is not a scorecard for the transformation plan.

Where to view in the explorer

• BBDC4 — Banco Bradesco S.A.
• Company list
• Blog

Sources

• Bradesco 2Q26 results materials / company communication, 05/08/2026 — recurring income, ROAE, NII, fees, expenses, loan book, NPL, CET1/Basel, JCP allocation, 2026 guidance
• Brazil Stock Guide, 05/08/2026 — operating leverage, Stage 3 share, efficiency, pro forma CET1, insurance
• Valor International, 06/08/2026 and 07/08/2026 — consensus comparison, segment NPL, call comments on FGO/FGI, John Deere, CFO on ROE timing
• Valor Investe, 06/08/2026 — session close after results, efficiency ratio
• InfoMoney, 06/08/2026 — Stage 2 share, NPL coverage, desk split after the print
• Estadão / Broadcast, 30/07/2026 — capital increase terms, preference calendar, September JCP
• BBDC4 on the explorer — filings and quote

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Recurring versus reported profit, NPL ratios versus Stage 2 and coverage, guidance ranges versus first-half run-rates, and CET1 today versus pro forma after a follow-on are different layers; when in doubt, the official CVM filings prevail. Refer to those documents and, if needed, a licensed professional.