EMBJ3 after 2Q26: a doubled cash-flow floor whose margin upgrade is mostly a tax credit

How to read Embraer’s second-quarter package — record USD revenue, a 13.3% adjusted EBIT margin that is 10.6% once the tax credit and tariffs are stripped, unchanged delivery guidance, and a free-cash-flow floor that doubled on items that are not run-rate.

Analysis

EMBJ3 after 2Q26: a doubled cash-flow floor whose margin upgrade is mostly a tax credit

On 10 August 2026, Embraer released its 2Q26 results. Revenue was US$ 2.235 billion, an all-time high for a second quarter and 23% above a year earlier. In reais the same line was R$ 11.336 billion, up about 10%. Adjusted EBIT was US$ 296.9 million, a 13.3% margin. The company also raised 2026 adjusted EBIT-margin guidance to 10.0%–10.6% and doubled the free-cash-flow floor, excluding Eve, to US$ 400 million or higher. Delivery and revenue guides did not move. Keep four layers apart: the USD P&L, the BRL translation, the US$ 68 million extraordinary tax credit sitting inside the margin, and cash that arrived as customer prepayments. That same session EMBJ3 closed at R$ 94.66, up 2.3%, after trading more than 8% higher intraday.

What the earnings package actually shows

Figures below follow the English earnings release furnished to the SEC as a Form 6-K (reference date 30 June 2026). Embraer reports the operating tape in dollars. The Portuguese release is the same quarter in reais.

Metric (2Q26)USDvs 2Q25BRL
Net revenueUS$ 2.235 bn+23%R$ 11.336 bn (+10%)
Adjusted EBITDAUS$ 355.6 mmargin 15.9%R$ 1.811 bn (margin 16.0%)
Adjusted EBITUS$ 296.9 mmargin 13.3% (was 10.5%)R$ 1.515 bn (margin 13.4%)
IFRS operating profitUS$ 285.8 m
Adjusted net incomeUS$ 218.6 m+38%R$ 1.114 bn (+25%)
Net income to ownersUS$ 212.6 mvs US$ 78.6 mR$ 1.084 bn (+141.5%)
Adj. FCF w/o EveUS$ 401.0 mwas −US$ 161.6 mR$ 2.031 bn

"Adjusted" here mainly puts Eve, the eVTOL subsidiary, outside the frame (US$ 11.1 million of EBIT and US$ 6.0 million of net income in the quarter). It does not remove the tax credit. If a table says 13.3%, ask whether the US$ 68 million is still in.

Deliveries were 65 aircraft (20 commercial: 10 E2s and 10 E1s; 45 executive: 24 small and 21 medium; none in defense), versus 61 a year earlier. The firm-order backlog was US$ 34.5 billion, a record, up 16% year on year: Defense +42%, Commercial +15%, Services +12%, Executive +5%.

Two currencies, four businesses

A 23% dollar top line and a 10% real top line can both be true. Embraer prices and books a large share of the business in dollars; the CVM ITR and the Portuguese release translate that into reais. The commercial unit is the cleanest illustration. In dollars, Commercial Aviation revenue was US$ 625 million, +8%. In reais, the Portuguese release says commercial revenue was 2% lower. Same jets, different unit of account.

The mix underneath the record quarter is not one story:

Unit (2Q26, USD)Revenuevs 2Q25Adj. EBIT marginAfter tax credit / tariffs
ExecutiveUS$ 725 m+32%23.4% (was 14.5%)16.1%
CommercialUS$ 625 m+8%2.9% (was 4.3%)mix of legacy contracts
Services & SupportUS$ 565 m+24%18.7% (was 15.5%)17.6%
Defense & SecurityUS$ 304 m+38%11.9% (was 9.2%)percentage-of-completion, not deliveries

Defense booked more revenue with zero aircraft handed over in the quarter. That is percentage-of-completion on contracts (the company flags KC-390 mix and stage), not a delivery miss. Commercial is the opposite problem: more volume, thinner margin, because older contracts are still in the mix. Executive looks spectacular until US$ 60 million of the US$ 68 million tax credit is assigned to that unit (820 bps). Services took the other US$ 8 million (140 bps).

On the 11 August call, CEO Francisco Gomes Neto told analysts that profitability should grow faster than revenue over the coming years, and cited Praetor cycle time falling from 18 months in 2021 to 8.5 months. That is an operating claim about the next years. It is not the same object as the 2Q margin print.

The margin upgrade is mostly not run-rate

U.S. import tariffs cost US$ 8 million in the quarter (35 bps). The extraordinary tax credit added US$ 68 million (300 bps). Strip both and adjusted EBIT margin would have been 10.6% — the top of the new full-year range, not a beat of it.

The 10 August material fact (CVM Resolution 44/2021) moved two lines and left three still:

2026 guide (ex Eve)Previous (6 Mar)Updated (10 Aug)
Commercial deliveries80–8580–85
Executive deliveries160–170160–170
Consolidated revenueUS$ 8.2–8.5 bnUS$ 8.2–8.5 bn
Adjusted EBIT margin8.7%–9.3%10.0%–10.6%
Adj. FCF w/o EveUS$ 200 m or higherUS$ 400 m or higher

The company itself bridges the US$ 110 million (130 bps) lift in the implied EBIT midpoint: US$ 68 million (80 bps) from the tax credit, US$ 38 million (45 bps) from exemption of direct U.S. import tariffs in 2H26, and US$ 4 million (5 bps) from a better business outlook. Indirect U.S. tariffs of about US$ 12 million a year (15 bps) remain. Of the 130-basis-point raise, 125 are tax-plus-tariff arithmetic. Five are "the factories are running better."

That is why deliveries and revenue did not move. The backlog can sit at a record while the year is still a 80–85 / 160–170 delivery year. Backlog is a stock. Guidance is a 2026 flow.

Cash arrived as contract liabilities

Adjusted free cash flow excluding Eve was US$ 401 million in 2Q26. That number already matches the full-year floor. It is not the year. First-half FCF is still −US$ 46.1 million, because 1Q burned US$ 447.1 million. Hitting US$ 400 million for 2026 still needs something like US$ 446 million in the second half.

The cash bridge in the quarter is operating profit plus working capital, and the working-capital line is not inventory coming down. Contract liabilities rose US$ 299.7 million sequentially, mainly Defense. Those are non-refundable advances before delivery or before a contractual stage is accepted. Cash is in; revenue may be later. The release also lists the tax credit among the reasons FCF was so large.

Stand-alone net cash excluding Eve improved to −US$ 214.5 million from −US$ 530.1 million in March (it was −US$ 688.7 million a year earlier). Consolidated cash was US$ 2.341 billion, plus an undrawn US$ 1.0 billion revolver. Eve is a separate cash box: US$ 403 million of cash and −US$ 49.2 million of FCF in the quarter. Eve is outside the 2026 guide. The CEO put entry-into-service around 2028.

How to use the explorer on this package

  1. Open EMBJ3 (the listing used to be EMBR3; the explorer follows the current ticker). Find the ITR with reference 30/06/2026 and the 10/08/2026 material fact that rewrote section 3 of the Formulário de Referência.
  2. Pair every margin with the company's own clean-up: 13.3% reported adjusted, 10.6% excluding tariffs and the tax credit.
  3. Convert the top line yourself. +23% in dollars and +10% in reais are the same quarter. Commercial +8% USD and −2% BRL are also the same quarter.
  4. Do not add 2Q FCF of US$ 401 million to the annual floor and stop. The first half is still negative.
  5. Treat Defense revenue without deliveries as percentage-of-completion, not as jets missing from the hangar.
  6. For a live quote, use the company page. This article does not freeze a print-time price beyond the 10 August close already reported in the press.

Limits of this reading

  • A raised margin guide is not a raised delivery guide. The company left volumes and revenue where they were on 6 March.
  • 10.6% clean in 2Q is the ceiling of the new year, not evidence that the year will print above it.
  • One quarter of Defense advances can reverse when the work is recognized. FCF that is customer deposits is not the same as FCF that is finished aircraft.
  • Eve losses are excluded from the figures management is guiding. They still sit in the consolidated cash-flow statement.
  • The 141.5% jump in attributable net income in reais mixes operations, a quieter financial line, and the tax item. Adjusted net income in dollars is up 38%.

Where to view in the explorer

Sources

  • Embraer 2Q26 earnings release (English), furnished as SEC Form 6-K, 10/08/2026 — USD P&L, segment margins, tax-credit and tariff bridge, FCF, backlog, deliveries, Eve, working capital
  • Embraer 2T26 earnings release (Portuguese), 10/08/2026 — BRL P&L and the commercial-unit decline in reais
  • Embraer material fact, 10/08/2026 (CVM Resolution 44/2021) — 2026 guidance update versus the 6 March 2026 version
  • Valor Econômico / Valor International, 10–11/08/2026 — attributable profit in reais, session close of R$ 94.66, and CEO comments on the call
  • InfoMoney, 10/08/2026 — Portuguese recap of adjusted profit, FCF and the tax credit
  • EMBJ3 on the explorer — filings and quote

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Adjusted EBIT, IFRS operating profit, free cash flow and backlog are different layers; Eve is outside the 2026 guide. When in doubt, the official CVM filings prevail. Refer to those documents and, if needed, a licensed professional.

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